Handbook : Unit informationEdith Cowan University

Faculty of Health, Engineering and Science

School: Engineering

This unit information may be updated and amended immediately prior to semester. To ensure you have the correct outline, please check it again at the beginning of semester.

• Unit Title

  Decision Making and Risk

• Unit Code

  MAT3487

• Year

  2015

• Enrolment Period

  1

• Version

  1

• Credit Points

  15

• Full Year Unit

  N

• Mode of Delivery

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Description

This unit examines stochastic techniques frequently used in management decision making and planning. Topics include, simulation, game theory, decision analysis and applications of Markov processes. Extensive use will be made of computer packages as well as case studies related to planning and business.

Prerequisite Rule

(Students must pass 1 units from BES1200, MAT1114 AND Students must pass 1 units from MAT2251, MAT2438)

Learning Outcomes

On completion of this unit students should be able to:

1. Apply simulation and Markov process methods to solving problems in management.
2. Apply simulation techniques in decision making.
3. Carry out stochastic decision analysis.
4. Communicate their understanding of concepts in stochastic optimisation and explain their solutions to problems involving stochastic optimisation techniques in written form.
5. Use the computer as an aid in solving quantitative models in management.

Unit Content

1. Decision analysis: payoff criteria; decision trees, utility theory.
2. Game Theory: two person, zero sum games; two-person non constant-sum games; n-person games; solution methods.
3. Markov Processes: Markov chains; steady-state conditions; applications of Markov chains, Markov decision processes.
4. Probabilistic dynamic programming.
5. Simulation: model construction; solution derivation; model validation; computer simulation.

Additional Learning Experience Information

Lectures, tutorials and workshops in which the emphasis will be placed on investigation and application of methods. Case studies and computer packages will be used as appropriate.

Assessment

GS1 GRADING SCHEMA 1 Used for standard coursework units

Students please note: The marks and grades received by students on assessments may be subject to further moderation. All marks and grades are to be considered provisional until endorsed by the relevant Board of Examiners.

Text References

• ^ Hillier, F.S., & Lieberman, G.J. (2001). Introduction to operations research (7th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Cook, T.M., & Russell, R.A. (1981). Introduction to management science. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall International Inc.
• Forgionne, G.A. (1986). Quantitative decision making. Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Co.
• Winston, W. L. (1994). Operations research: Applications and algorithms (3rd ed.). Belmont: Duxbury Press.
• Lapin, L.L. (1988). Quantitative methods for business decisions with cases. Orlando: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers.
• Nelson, B. L. (1995). Stochastic modelling: analysis and simulation. New York: McGraw Hill.
• Newbold, P. (1986). Principles of management science. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
• Taha, H.A. (1992). Operations research: An introduction (5th ed.). New York: Macmillan Publishing Co. Inc.
• Chang, Y.L., & Sullivan, R.S. (1989). Quantitative system for business plus. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
• Gilchrist, W. (1976). Statistical forecasting. John Wiley and Sons Inc.

^ Mandatory reference

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